Investment video clip from Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com
Videos from Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com site. Talk about macro economics, interest rates, forex. It is basically wild guesswork by people in suits. Read the disclaimer on the bottom of Tradingfloor.com: None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to make any investments.
Featuring male suit models from Saxo Bank:
Forex, equities and macro strategy
- David Karsbøl, Chief Economist and member of Senior Management Group
- John J. Hardy FX specialist, Consultant
- Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, Equity strategist and analytical expert
- Mads Koefoed – Market Strategist
- Nick Beecroft – Senior FX Consultant
- Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst
Trading
- Michael Schmeja – Global Head of Derivatives Sales
- Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading and Advisory
- Didier Abbato, Senior Manager, Trading Advisory
CFDs and Listed Products
- Ole S. Hansen, Senior Manager, CFDs and Listed Products
- Alan Plaugmann – Deputy Head, CFDs and Listed Products
IT sector undervalued but Facebook is pricy; Materials comeback?
- Title
- IT sector undervalued but Facebook is pricy; Materials comeback?
- Runtime
- 5:20
- Description
- In this video with Peter Garnry, Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank, he takes a look at the first quarter earnings reports from benchmark S&P 500 companies, analysing the trends that have emerged and which sectors are the best and worst performers. He highlights the information technology sector, the leader of the pack, and also looks at the lagging materials sector. Furthermore he gives his take on the recently announced Facebook Initial Public Offering which he classes as overpriced while he considers the IT sector as a whole somewhat undervalued.The surprise factor from the earnings of S&P 500 companies has been 3 percent which is similar to the previous two quarters and according to Peter is good and normal. He sees earnings picking up again in the second quarter stating that growth from now on has to come more and more from sales.The companies that are doing well are primarily successfully managing costs. They have also been helped by no excessive wage pressure and have so far been sheltered from higher commodity prices squeezing their margins. So all in all it is still a fairly favourable environment for profitability, he concludes.Peter rates the Facebook IPO as overvalued. Facebook is priced more than double what Google was valued at in 2004 and he doubts whether Facebook's growth perspectives are twice as good as Google's. He foresees an IPO scenario not unlike that of LinkedIn's -- where the share price might go up on the first or second day of trading but that it <b>...</b>
- Title
- China's hard landing avoided? Several RBA rate cuts seen soon
- Runtime
- 5:55
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore gives insight into the strength of recent purchasing manager figures from China and confirmation of the Chinese economy's resilience to negative global pressure. He also analyses the latest macro data from Down Under in light of the rate outlook ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's first meeting this year.The recent PMI data out of China for January was received with surprise and some suspicion, especially due to the Chinese Lunar New Year preparations and prolonged celebrations which mean that orders and deliveries are normally brought forward and therefore a retracement was expected in January. Despite the latest data giving an indication that a hard landing in China could possibly be avoided, or at least delayed, Andrew advises that data for February and March will give a better indication of where the Chinese economy is really heading this year.Meanwhile, in Australia trade numbers for December were also quite strong with the surplus having increased more than expected though the main driver is still in the resource and mining sector of the economy of which coal production and exports are strong.Concerning the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting next week market expectations are for a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut. And with inflation not an issue, further rate cuts, probably in the vicinity of 100 basis points in total this year are highly likely given <b>...</b>
- Title
- EURUSD dynamic shifts post EU summit but market discipline lurks
- Runtime
- 6:17
- Description
- In this video with John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy Saxo Bank, he analyses the outcome of the January EU Summit and notes that not much at all has changed in terms of how the market looks at the Eurozone's predicament. Concerns about Europe may have eased slightly for now but the seriousness of the situation remains and some market discipline is almost certainly ahead if a more comprehensive solution is not found by politicians soon. Unless such a solution involving the European Central Bank printing more money or a true Eurobond emerges then previous alarming pressure points will almost certainly be reached again, says John.He likens the situation to a state of suspended animation and says Europe is for now fortunate to have the European Central Bank in the background so readily providing liquidity. The net effect being that peripheral Eurozone bonds are ironically going lower even though European politicians have still really failed to deliver!A smooth process for the implementation of the new treaty and agreement on the fiscal policing process probably needs to be well settled before the next EU summit in March, however these are long-term sustainability issues and continuing down the austerity route alone is still an unsustainable situation. In the short term the market just really wants to know if the liquidity game will be continued, says John.Macro data from Europe is still important especially when recent numbers have pointed to more contraction in Eurozone <b>...</b>
- Title
- EU summit: No workable crisis solution yet; Merkel tactics key
- Runtime
- 9:37
- Description
- In this macro report with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, he analyses the situation for the Eurozone ahead of the EU leaders' first summit for 2012.The broader terms of the fiscal compact (agreed to at the December 2011 summit) are expected to be pretty much settled at the meeting, says Steen. But with the general improvement in overall markets the pressure for policymakers to really come together is unfortunately somewhat off, he adds. Therefore a truly workable solution will not be the outcome and many more negotiations ahead of the next summit in March are needed.There's also some way to go before the details surrounding the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent European bailout fund, are ironed out. The size of the total fund available is still very much an issue as increasing the amount via the likes of the International Monetary Fund is hardly an easy task for central banks in countries that are currently struggling, Steen says.German Chancellor Angela Merkel's words at the summit will be of key interest and her tactics in the months ahead could well result in her even losing her own foothold, says Steen who believes however that Germany will eventually come to the party and agree to Eurobonds and doing everything to safeguard Europe's future.The future of Greece remains a main concern as time is running out for a debt restructuring solution with private bond holders. Nevertheless, a 'voluntary forced' deal is seen only buying time. Greece is a <b>...</b>
- Title
- RBA rate cuts still just around corner; RBNZ hike kept at bay
- Runtime
- 5:53
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore analyses recent macro-economic data from Down Under and assesses whether an interest rate cut is soon expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia. He also touches on the inflation and rate outlook in New Zealand.Australia's December employment report which greatly missed estimates initially shocked and the knee-jerk market reaction was to sell AUDUSD but the Aussie dollar is expected to recover fairly quickly. Closer analysis revealed most losses in the part-time jobs sector and strong growth in full-time jobs which is the preferred scenario and it will be interesting to see if this continues, says Andrew.Meanwhile, the demand for home loans in Australia increased for the fifth straight month in November while building approvals are still relatively sluggish. Consumer sentiment as such is still suffering says Andrew and it will be some time before the effect of end of year interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia can really be felt by Australians. More rate cuts in the vicinity of 100 basis points during the next 12 months are still priced in and the expectation for another move at the RBA's February meeting is high.Also on rate outlooks the latest consumer price index data from New Zealand suggests a benign inflationary environment, thereby pushing back the chance for rate hikes, adds Andrew.See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com
- Title
- PBOC's easing flexibility reduced; Chinese New Year skews data
- Runtime
- 5:35
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, looks at how Asia has started the year and specifically the growth, inflation and monetary policy outlook for China, the region's power house.He explains why the People's Bank of China's flexibility to ease monetary policy further is slightly reduced following recent macro releases and how the upcoming Chinese New Year celebrations have played a role in skewing some data. This holiday season has a big impact on the economy every year as it virtually shuts things down for a few weeks. Therefore we will probably have to wait until February or even March when 'looney' distortions are well out of the way before we get a better feel for how the Chinese economy is developing, says Andrew. It is probably only then it can be properly determined if the People's Bank of China can continue down the easing track it began in December.In the meantime Andrew doubts whether it is possible for China to maintain its overall 8 percent growth rate this year, and refers to his more pessimistic view of the economy growing by about 6 percent, as outlined in Saxo Bank's just published first quarter 2012 outlook.Also in this video Andrew comments on how Singapore (like other Asian economies so dependent on exports and Chinese growth) is struggling as recent retail sales data shows. He cites authorities' growth warnings and refers to how the slowdown is particularly hurting the Singapore tiger's large <b>...</b>
- Title
- Asia Focus: Aussie economy robust while Japan's struggle persists
- Runtime
- 6:30
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore analyses the stance of central banks in Australia and Japan regarding their economies.At the December 6 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting interest rates were cut for the second consecutive month. In the minutes published this week it can now be concluded that the cut was primarily due to the slowdown in Europe and the uncertainties this creates for many economies including the distant Australian. For now the Australian economy is performing at trend though and investments are continuing, mainly in the mining sector. The minutes however were somewhat dovish leading to an interpretation that more cuts might just be on the way sometime in the New Year, says Andrew. The wait though will probably be quite long as the next RBA meeting is not until February 7. A lot can happen to the European situation and China before then so it's really a wait and see what the macro data has to offer approach, adds Andrew.In terms of the Bank of Japan's meeting ahead of Christmas the focus will be on more efforts to weaken the yen and comments to that effect, particularly after the so-called "war chest" for intervention has been increased by 30 trn yen, adds Andrew. Trade data for November out this week is also of interest with the deficit seen widening largely due to the continued decline in shipments to China. Any positive effect for Japanese exporters from further yen intervention is seen as only <b>...</b>
- Title
- New EU Treaty and measures still leave Europe high and dry
- Runtime
- 6:35
- Description
- In this video John Hardy analyses the outcome of the all-important EU Summit and if the new EU Treaty will work wonders or leave Europe high and dry.The EU Summit saw politicians battle it out in an attempt to help a struggling Europe get back on its feet and on the road to recovery. But the battle has so far exposed some dissidents, with the UK standing out the most and making one wonder if the UK is on its way out of the EU. An EU Treaty without the support of all members is a tenuous situation, says John Hardy.Nevertheless the nations still committed to the cause are willing to keep up their efforts and hopes are now set on the new treaty plus revised funding structures. But there are still several questions about where the money is really going to come from. As John points out there is still a pressing liquidity problem in Europe and even though the European Central Bank announced new liquidity enhancement measures they are hardly considered enough and neither is the idea of bringing the European Stability Mechanism forward.In the meantime the ECB's hands are tied due to its mandate so bond buying is out of the question and even if more rate cuts come they will do little help, adds John.All in all the events have done little to help the EURUSD which could break the 1.32 level by year end though as always the headline risks abound, he says.See more of John's commentary on TradingFloor.com
- Title
- Global central bank action puts heat on EU Summit to deliver
- Runtime
- 8:00
- Description
- In this macro view video with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, he comments on the situation for the Eurozone ahead of the EU leaders summit next week and in light of the major global central banks' intervention to boost liquidity. The concerted central bank action has effectively resulted in the US printing money for Europe seeing as the European Central Bank will not, says Steen, adding that it's like flying in a jet with one engine only -- hardly a safe scenario!The surprising joint intervention by the world's largest central banks to make it cheaper for financial institutions outside America to borrow dollars seems to have had a positive effect on risk sentiment, but is not expected to last long. For an extended rally or to just sustain gains something more needs to be put on the table, like better fundamentals, plus structural changes and real commitments to toing the line in Eurozone nations, says Steen. The reason being that the severe solvency issues in Europe and deep rooted growth problems are still very much plaguing outlooks.One could argue that with the central banks having joined forces the pressure is now more so on European politicians to implement lasting austerity and commit to cleaning up their backyards and follow standard rules. The question is whether next week if EU leaders will be able to set things straight once and for all when they meet for the seventeenth time to solve the issues. He remains doubtful.In the meantime, the central bank <b>...</b>
- Title
- More Chinese easing as price pressure abates removing PBOC hurdle
- Runtime
- 6:03
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Forex Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analyses the People's Bank of China's decision to lower its reserve requirement ratio, whether it's a taste of more cuts to come and how much it is a clear signal that the world's second-largest economy is really slowing after all.The unexpected People's Bank of China's announcement that it will lower its reserve requirement ratio on December 5, representing the first cut in three years, initially surprised markets and started a risk-on sentiment, particularly in equities and incited market hunger for more.As such, reserve requirement ratio cuts rarely come in isolation and more are likely to come, probably as early as next month, estimates Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets. He says the timing of this easing has to do with the flow of data of late which has pointed to a slowing in the economy and that it was acknowledgement of this situation. Furthermore it pre-empted the latest purchasing manager index data which confirmed a contraction scenario for the economy.The focus in the coming days will now shift to inflation data with more declines in the consumer price index and an even greater drop in the purchasing prices index seen. Combined, this confirmation of a softening in price pressure effectively removes a hurdle the People's Bank of China was facing in terms of the freedom to continue to ease monetary policy.
- Title
- Asian growth slowing: key data in China and Singapore eyed
- Runtime
- 7:46
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, previews Chinese PMI data in light of other reports which have pointed to a slowing economy and recent comments from authorities which have presented an economic view that is more negative than just six months ago. He also takes a brief look at Singapore where data points to a slowing, but still performing, economy.In China focus is particularly on the flash estimate for the HSBC purchasing managers index, which is a preview of the non-government view on how China's economy is faring. The previous report showed a rebound to 51 - which is just above the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. This time the estimate is expected to be closer to the 50 level. While the flash index is seen as an important indicator its track record in terms of giving a true indication of the actual situation in China can be debated, says Andrew.Last week the People's Bank of China released its quarterly monetary policy report which pointed to a shift towards loosening and on the weekend the Chinese Vice Premier Qishan spoke of a serious crisis forthcoming. Especially Qishan's comments have drawn much attention as they are so far the most depressing from a high-level authority and are being interpreted as an indication of some upcoming initiatives to boost the local economy.With inflation looking like it has peaked near term in China and with prices coming off in the housing sector there is <b>...</b>
- Title
- More proof of China's economy cooling; Monetary easing ahead soon?
- Runtime
- 6:32
- Description
- In this Asian Focus video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analyses the latest macro data out of China which is clearly pointing to a cooling economy. He also comments on positive Australian employment data which showed the economy added 10100 jobs in October.Prices at both consumer and producer levels fell markedly in October in China, with producer prices in particular at the lowest level this year, which was the most positive of the reports and gives an indication of what is to come in the coming months, says Andrew Robinson. It now seems evident that there is a general reduction in price pressure, from particularly food, which is very much welcomed. The expectation is that during the next few months inflation will come down quite considerably and this trend will continue into next year, in line with what is being estimated by think tanks and the like - which are currently revising down their inflation forecasts for the rest of the year and 2012.In addition to slowing price growth, industrial production and retail sales in China also fell last month. Of particular note is industrial production which is now at the lowest growth rate in two years. This however is largely expected considering the general global slowdown. Trade data also further confirmed the slowing scenario due to the global imbalance.Based on this backdrop and particularly the development in prices it is quite possible that Chinese authorities will look into monetary <b>...</b>
- Title
- New Italian and Greek shoulders can't shrug off heavy burdens
- Runtime
- 7:21
- Description
- In this macro view video Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, analyses the situation for the Eurozone in light of heads rolling in the hot political seats of troubled nations, namely Greece and Italy. It goes without saying that despite the appointment soon of new heads of state the burdens in these nations are so heavy now that they can hardly be shrugged off.Clean-up in both countries is a major task. While Greece is in the bailout phase and is undergoing a leadership change, the main focus is on Italy now which still has a chance to save itself. And it must as there is hardly a hand large enough to help the Eurozone's third-largest economy. With the situation worsening by the hour though and the markets having clearly demonstrated a looming doomsday with perilously high bond yield spreads prompt action must be taken.The problem in Italy is one of liquidity not solvency, unlike Greece, though it seems the difference hardly matters now in the eyes of investors. It is interesting to note that it only took Portugal, Greece and Ireland 14 days to ask the International Monetary Fund for help after their 10-year bond yield spread to German bunds passed 6.5 percent, says Steen. Italy's has been above 7 percent for a few days now. So the pressure is definitely on Italy's politicians in charge - whoever they might be - to activate reforms, move through austerity and create a credible plan. Until then EURUSD is expected to remain under considerable pressure.For more <b>...</b>
- Title
- Video FX Update - Interesting levels
- Runtime
- 8:52
- Description
- We're at interesting technical levels across markets ahead of the Italian parliamentary vote that may lead to a Berlusconi confidence vote.
- Title
- FX Update: Interesting Levels
- Runtime
- 8:52
- Description
- We're at interesting technical levels across markets ahead of the Italian parliamentary vote that may lead to a Berlusconi confidence vote.
- Title
- Intensity persists: ECB, FOMC, G-20 and Greek referendum in focus
- Runtime
- 10:59
- Description
- Having left a week behind that was seen as crucial for the future of the Eurozone we are now smack bang in the middle of another that is incredibly important for sustaining risk-on sentiment, at least until year end. In this macro view video with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, we take a look at the expectations for three key meetings: the Federal Open Market Committee, the European Central Bank and the Group of 20 leaders. He also addresses the implications of Greece's referendum on its aid package and austerity programme.The G-20 meeting (November 3-4) needs to deliver actions rather than more supportive talk for the troubled Eurozone, says Steen. Focus will be on the announcement of concrete financial measures of commitment via the International Monetary Fund in order to appease the prevailing uncertainty.This uncertainty was exacerbated by Greece's call for a referendum on its new aid package and austerity measures, thereby possibly threatening European leaders' attempts last week to secure the Eurozone's future.Prior to G-20 the Federal Open Market Committee meets. Despite a spate of moderately encouraging US data of late the committee is expected to merely confirm a supportive wait and see approach and possibly only allude to a third round of Quantitative Easing, says Steen.The European Central Bank meeting, also this week, which is the first to be chaired by the new President Mario Draghi will be interesting to watch to see if he already now cuts rates <b>...</b>
- Title
- 1 november 2011
- Runtime
- 7:06
- Description
- Unknown content
- Title
- Yen intervention worked so far; more RBA rate cuts ahead?
- Runtime
- 7:06
- Description
- In this Asia Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets, analyses the effect of the Bank of Japan's latest yen intervention and the sustainability of further actions before year end. He also comments on the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut rates, the first flow of PMI data in Asia and the noise surrounding the Chinese leader's visit to Europe this week.Japan's Finance Minister Jun Azumi put his money where his mouth was with unilateral intervention to weaken the yen. This is the third intervention this year with estimates suggesting it is the largest one of the three. So far it has had the intended effect with the USDJPY holding at around the 78.0 level. History however shows that it could be a longer term struggle to keep it there as after the previous two interventions this year it took only about five days for the rate to drop back to pre-intervention levels. Concerning other action it is unlikely the Bank of Japan will instigate other measures like a trading floor for the pair, similar to the Swiss National Bank's action says Andrew. The timing of the intervention ahead of the Group of 20 leaders initially took the market by surprise but in hindsight as Finance Minister Azumi had in recent weeks spoken almost daily about the problem of the strong yen it was ultimately only a matter of time before the Bank of Japan took action.Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since <b>...</b>
- Title
- 3Q earnings season's leaders and laggards
- Runtime
- 6:49
- Description
- Well into the third quarter earnings season, with more than 20 percent of the benchmark S&P 500 companies having reported their results, this video with Peter Garnry, Equity Strategist at Saxo Bank, looks at the leaders and laggards and what common threads, if any, there are across sectors. It particularly focuses on the far reaching consequences of the Eurozone crisis on banking and financial entities plus the apparent invincibility so far of companies in the energy and technology sectors to the slowing economic growth of several key economies around the globe. It also looks at the biggest earnings surprise so far from Caterpillar, which is benefitting largely from a mining boom driven primarily by China's demand for industrial metals and other mined materials used in manufacturing. Peter likens the overall lack of expression and visibility concerning 2012 earnings outlooks as akin to radio silence with very few companies daring to speak up, with some actually even avoiding guidance on the fourth quarter despite relatively reliable revenue.See more of Peter's market commentary on TradingFloor.com
- Title
- Video FX Update: Inflection point
- Runtime
- 18:26
- Description
- Here's an attempt at trying to see through the current fog created by the endless EU headline-driven chopfest and having a look at where markets will head in coming weeks now that we've established ranges near key inflection points.