Investment video clip from Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com
Videos from Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com site. Talk about macro economics, interest rates, forex. It is basically wild guesswork by people in suits. Read the disclaimer on the bottom of Tradingfloor.com: None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to make any investments.
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Forex, equities and macro strategy
- David Karsbøl, Chief Economist and member of Senior Management Group
- John J. Hardy FX specialist, Consultant
- Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, Equity strategist and analytical expert
- Mads Koefoed – Market Strategist
- Nick Beecroft – Senior FX Consultant
- Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst
Trading
- Michael Schmeja – Global Head of Derivatives Sales
- Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading and Advisory
- Didier Abbato, Senior Manager, Trading Advisory
CFDs and Listed Products
- Ole S. Hansen, Senior Manager, CFDs and Listed Products
- Alan Plaugmann – Deputy Head, CFDs and Listed Products
Asian Focus: Dim Japan outlook as rebuilding post quake wears off
- Title
- Asian Focus: Dim Japan outlook as rebuilding post quake wears off
- Runtime
- 5:52
- Description
- In this Asian Focus Video, Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore about first quarter growth data from Japan and Singapore. He also gives insight into whether the recent monetary easing in China will be enough to keep the Asian engine running at moderate speed.Japan's economy is expected to have grown in the first three months of this year, making it the first increase in two quarters but the upcoming data will hardly represent a turning point for Japan. It might be a good figure for the first quarter but generally things look dim for the rest of the year, says Andrew. The expected strong rebound is dependent on leftovers from the rebuilding programme after last year's earthquake. So it might be a good figure for the first quarter but generally things look less bright further down the track.Once the rebuilding is out of the way Japan will be back to relying on exports again, he says. Growth prospects are further compounded by the fact that the yen has strengthened 5 percent since the middle of last month and the external situation is "looking quite dicy" with prognoses for slips in GDP ahead.The same goes for the industrial production data for March from Japan. Annual growth will be a lot higher but the month on month numbers will be much lower. There's no doubt that compared to one year ago when the earthquake hit that the March data has to look good but a continued increase is unsustainable, says <b>...</b>
- Title
- Asian Focus: More signs of China slowing but easing still way off
- Runtime
- 5:42
- Description
- In this Asian Focus Video, Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore reviews April trade balance figures out of China and previews other key data for the month which points to continued slowing in the world's second-largest economy. He also reviews the latest employment figures from Australia which seem to be surprisingly robust but a closer look reveals a different story.China's trade balance data for April was hardly all good news despite a higher-than-expected increase in the surplus. Much of the improvement came due to the lowest level of imports in more than a year (excluding lunar New Year distortions), while exports grew at a much lower than expected pace.The report was especially negative for the Australian economy as reduced imports into China (Australia's largest trading partner) suggest that demand for Australian resources will slow. The low level of imports suggest the requirements for the Chinese economy are slowing down and as a result there's a risk of lower industrial production data for April, due Friday, says Andrew.Also on Friday Chinese retail sales for April are expected to come in flat at around 15.3 percent year on year versus 15.5 percent last year. As a result of this and the overall economic backdrop in China any expectations that domestic consumption will take off there soon are being put on the back burner a bit simply because the logistics of the domestic economy are very <b>...</b>
- Title
- High odds for June RBA cut; Singapore COE inflation impact eyed
- Runtime
- 6:34
- Description
- In this Asian Focus Video, Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore about the likely reasoning behind the Reserve Bank of Australia's deeper rate cut and the impact on consumer borrowing. They also discuss New Zealand's higher than expected first quarter employment data and controversial PMI indices out of China. Andrew also previews interesting data for the Asian region to be released next week, including Certificate of Entitlement premiums from Singapore which are set to continue be a key contributor to rising inflation during the next month.This week the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash target rate by a more than expected. More benign Inflation and a weaker economy is expected to be confirmed as the reasoning behind the cut in the RBA's monetary policy statement. The full impact in terms of reduced borrowing costs has been barely passed on to consumers which is why the odds are already quite high (around 70%) for another 25 basis point cut at the bank's June 5 meeting.New Zealand reported its highest unemployment rate since 2010 for the first quarter which put the kiwi under pressure and further delayed any expectation of any interest rate normalisation.China's manufacturing PMI reports (both the official data and the HSBC equivalent for April) showed slight improvements though there is still a great discrepancy between the two with the private sector figure continuing to indicate contraction <b>...</b>
- Title
- Asian sales key to earnings; Wage and input cost pressures grow
- Runtime
- 7:33
- Description
- With more than half of the first quarter earnings reports from benchmark SP 500 companies out of the way Peter Garnry, Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank talks with Yvette Roper on TradingFloor.com about the trends that have emerged and which sectors are the best and worst performers. He particularly looks at information technology - the leader of the pack, yet again, in terms of sales and net income.He says that a lot of the reason for the IT sector's outperformance is due to Apple, but there's also a good development across the board from other IT companies, with a clear reinvestment cycle going on in terms of new equipment and infrastructure for companies.Regarding the worst performers, utilities and mining have suffered the most. Utilities particularly felt the impact of an extremely mild winter in the US. Materials and mining has suffered due to rising costs from late stage extraction of minerals.Concerning the earnings surprise ratio it is one of the highest seen since 2001, which bodes well for the overall health of companies, says Peter, adding that low expectations played a contributory role in the high surprise ratio.The companies in general have benefited from what Peter says is 'okay' growth in the US and Asian economies, with the latter playing a key role. More and more growth from Asia will continue to drive the large caps' good performance.The impact on company earnings of the global economic slowdown is being largely offset by Asian growth. Sales growth is <b>...</b>
- Title
- EURUSD squeeze on overly dovish FOMC? French election woes abound
- Runtime
- 6:00
- Description
- In this video with John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy Saxo Bank he looks at the all-important Federal Open Market Committee meeting and in particular expectations for growth, inflation, rates and quantitative easing. He also discusses the French presidential elections and the negative implications for the Eurozone.The FOMC outcome will generally be dollar supportive if the market is where I think it is -- expecting a rather dovish FOMC and a rather non-committal response, says John. In terms of the EURUSD there's a risk of even a squeeze higher (but no run away rally short-term) if the FOMC is more dovish than I expect.Regarding Fed forecasts, he sees the unemployment rate being lowered a bit and inflation rising due to indicators having moved higher recently. In terms of further quantitative easing though he expects Chairman Ben Bernanke to back his dovish views while still showing concern about some worrying issues and the willingness to act if needed.We need a few more months of bad data points, especially on the unemployment side, and markets to be in really bad shape before we see the Fed going into more QE, especially considering the political sensitivity ahead of November elections, says John.In terms of politics elsewhere, the French presidential elections are receiving much attention. John goes as far as calling it the "last nail in the coffin", particularly considering the German desire to see fiscal discipline and the Dutch Government dissolving on the inability <b>...</b>
- Title
- Spain's pains increase chance of 2012 rescue to more than 50%
- Runtime
- 9:58
- Description
- In this macro view video with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, he discusses the likely scenarios going forward for saving Spain which is awfully close to putting out its hand for what will be the Eurozone's fourth bailout package. Steen believes there's more than a 50 percent chance Spain will ask for help this year. A combination of European Financial Stability Facility and European Central Bank support is the 'saving Spain' route we will see, he says.The problems abound for Spain, ranging from the country's regional banks' balance sheets, the autonomy of the regions and resultant issues in implementing austerity plans, the struggles of the government to pay its debt and stay afloat and the furore on the streets with unemployment at exorbitant levels. Ranking which challenges the Spanish government should tackle first however is not possible at this late stage in the game. With youth unemployment close to 50 percent and more than 1.8 million people living on less than 400 euros a day Steen describes Spain as a society grinding towards the edge.He gives the Spanish Government credit for trying to make changes but adds that adhering to what Germany wants Spain to do, which is more austerity, is probably not the best solution with Spain mostly reaping lots of pain and little gain. Spain's fiscal multiple is greater than 1 percent which means that for every 1 percent of austerity the negative impact on gross domestic product is more than 1 percent and Steen <b>...</b>
- Title
- Asian Focus: Japan trade deficit persists; RRR cut by end of week
- Runtime
- 5:51
- Description
- In this Asian Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore reviews trade data out of Japan, property price development in China and rumours of rate cuts in the region. He also touches on the rate cut outlook in Australia and the importance of first quarter inflation data.New home prices in China fell in March and the decline looks set to steadily continue. There is evidence however that the housing market is actually deflating rather than imploding, which is the greatest fear, says Andrew. This means that the desired results of restrictions on development seem to be bearing fruit, says Andrew. He however does not see an end to the restrictions ahead but rather a bit more flexibility for developers. This alone will not prove enough for an interest rate cut, though rumours have been rife in the last few days about a pending reserve requirement ratio cut and Andrew would not be surprised if this came already by the end of this week.In March, Japan's trade balance moved back into deficit mode after a short-lived surplus in February. Despite the slide though there was a surprise on the export side with a 5.9 percent annual increase, largely driven by car sales to the US. Of most concern though was the fact that it was the second month of decline in exports to China, Japan's biggest trading partner. Also of concern is the continued high level of imports, heavily affected by the need to buy oil and gas to replace lost nuclear energy production <b>...</b>
- Title
- Asia Focus: China Q1 GDP to confirm slowing; Aussie jobs astound
- Runtime
- 4:56
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore looks at the latest jobs report from Australia and previews some upcoming data in China and Singapore, giving his take on the health of these key economies in the region.Australia added some 44000 jobs in March with a good mix of part-time and full-time employees seen. The report beat even the most optimistic expectations and indicated there is a positive broad-based development in the Australian jobs market and not just a rebound from the decline in February, says Andrew.The astounding report immediately benefited the AUDUSD which closed near nine-day highs. It also reduced the probability of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting on May 1 to 75 percent from 90 percent.Amid increased focus on the slowdown in Chinese economic growth first quarter GDP data on Friday is seen continuing this trend. The Chinese dragon however is not expected to rear its ugly head. The data is seen reflecting a natural reaction to a slowing global trend, says Andrew.Focus early next week will be on Singapore's GDP data which is more erratic than that from China. A small rebound close to 1 percent year-on-year is expected. Relative to China this looks quite dismal but compared to the rest of the world it is quite okay performance, says Andrew.Trade data in Singapore will also be interesting to watch. Considering China posted strong trade data for March it is highly likely that we <b>...</b>
- Title
- Outlook Q2 2012
- Runtime
- 2:59
- Description
- Unknown content
- Title
- Negative Asian data adds to growth worries; RRR cut by end March?
- Runtime
- 4:43
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore looks into some recent macro data for the region. Much of the data was negative and managed to dent risk sentiment plus increase concerns about the robustness of growth in this all-important region.China led the way with poor HSBC manufacturing PMI data for March, making it the fifth month of contraction. Market reaction was negative with particularly the Australian dollar being initially hard hit. The data worsened the already fairly pessimistic outlook and heightened talk about the likelihood of a reserve ratio requirement cut - perhaps already later this month. If it comes though, it's not likely to help risk appetite that much, says Andrew. The more general factor of how the Chinese economy and others in the region can be triggered to move faster is the key element.New Zealand's fourth quarter growth figures were not impressive considering that the economy should probably have benefitted from the Rugby World Cup. Although there was a rebound in the agricultural sector manufacturing was quite disappointing. According to Andrew it's difficult to see how the numbers will improve going forward with New Zealand expecting a tough time on exports.There was a slight ray of hope for Japan's economy in its trade data for February, though a closer look revealed that it's probably more of a one of than an indication of a real pick-up. High import costs from particularly rising energy <b>...</b>
- Title
- No RBA panic; China looks for growth within own walls
- Runtime
- 5:37
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video, Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analyses the latest data out of Australia in light of the no rate change yet environment. He also comments on the importance of the China National Party Congress this week and the impact of China's revised growth target for 2012.Australia's economy grew less than half of what was expected in the final quarter of 2011. The slowing was mostly due to lower domestic demand with personal spending and household consumption all seeming to be on the weak side. Ultimately this comes hardly as a surprise though because Australia's growth has for a long time been driven by exports from the strong mining and resource sectors. It is perhaps really more of an indication that market focus may be shifting towards poor domestic demand, says Andrew.Australian employment data for February looked shocking on the headline numbers with three times as many jobs lost as gained. Closer analysis however confirmed a healthy reduction in the number of part-time jobs.Despite these two seemingly negative reports it's not likely the Reserve Bank of Australia 'regrets' its decision earlier in the week to leave rates unchanged. These reports in isolation are hardly enough to make the RBA panic, he says. There is no doubt though that there is a rate cutting mood evident in the market once more, with about 60 basis points of cuts priced in and around estimates of a 30 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut at <b>...</b>
- Title
- EU Summit: Size of Merkel's cheque still key; Long live LTRO?
- Runtime
- 8:56
- Description
- In this Macro View video with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, he takes a look at the main themes of the March EU Summit and comments on those which continue to haunt the Eurozone and investor sentiment. The need to agree on the size of a firewall to ensure adequate ring-fencing of the European debt crisis is one overriding concern. There is mounting pressure on Germany's Chancellor Merkel to side with solidarity and protect the Euro by writing a big enough cheque to fund bailouts, says Steen. He also gives his assessment of the European Central Bank's second Long-Term Refinancing Operation and its risk-off market impact if this really is the last easy money. And he touches on the risk to the fiscal compact process of Ireland's call for a referendum on the issue. Furthermore, he looks at how Greece is faring on its commitments.For more comments by Steen Jakobsen see his blog Steen's Chronicle on TradingFloor.com
- Title
- Lunar New Year distorts Asian data; More policy easing on hold
- Runtime
- 5:10
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore looks into some key macro data for Singapore and China and gives his take on what it says about the economic health of the Asian region. As expected the Lunar New Year celebrations have distorted the data somewhat so ascertaining the real state of these economies will have to wait until at least next month.For Singapore this means further challenges for its economy which is already struggling with a dry up in export markets, says Andrew Robinson. Meanwhile the latest inflation data pointed to some moderation in price pressure but Andrew expects this to be short-lived particularly considering rising energy prices. Against this backdrop it puts the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which reviews its policy again in April, between a rock and a hard place, he says. On the one hand it needs to cut rates to spur growth but on the other it also needs to prevent upward inflationary pressure.In China the latest HSBC flash PMI, an indicator of China's industrial activity, rose to a four-month-high of 49.7 in February. Export orders however declined to an eight-month low. But the Lunar New Year Celebrations also skewed this data so it won't be until probably around mid to end March that more accurate assumptions about the economy can be made. Furthermore, despite the weak external outlook, he estimates it's hardly likely that the People's Bank of China will start a phase of reserve ratio <b>...</b>
- Title
- Chinese and Australian monetary easing still ahead; Japan's struggle continues
- Runtime
- 6:32
- Description
- In this Asia Focus video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore gives insight into recent Chinese data and what it tells about the all-important economy and the chances for monetary easing soon. He also comments on poor trade data for Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia's failure to cut rates at its first meeting this year.Chinese CPI and PPI data for January produced mixed results. Excessive spending related to the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations undoubtedly played a significant role in the much higher than expected CPI data. PPI came in on the soft side and is positive news as it indicates there is reduced pipeline pressure. The combined effect being though that the stance of the People's Bank of China on monetary easing ahead (particularly considering the continued debt saga in Europe) is likely to be unchanged.Japan posted its biggest trade deficit since 1963 in 2011 and flash numbers for January indicate more negative numbers are on the cards this year too. The Japanese economy is believed to be hurting so much that Japanese exporters are looking more and more into manufacturing goods abroad.While the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's first policy meeting of this year shocked, in that no rate cut was announced despite high expectations, it is still largely deemed that more rate cuts will come, though the market probably won't get too carried away about the size nor timing next time around says Andrew.See more of Andrew's <b>...</b>
- Title
- IT sector undervalued but Facebook is pricy; Materials comeback?
- Runtime
- 5:20
- Description
- In this video with Peter Garnry, Equity Strategist, Saxo Bank, he takes a look at the first quarter earnings reports from benchmark S&P 500 companies, analysing the trends that have emerged and which sectors are the best and worst performers. He highlights the information technology sector, the leader of the pack, and also looks at the lagging materials sector. Furthermore he gives his take on the recently announced Facebook Initial Public Offering which he classes as overpriced while he considers the IT sector as a whole somewhat undervalued.The surprise factor from the earnings of S&P 500 companies has been 3 percent which is similar to the previous two quarters and according to Peter is good and normal. He sees earnings picking up again in the second quarter stating that growth from now on has to come more and more from sales.The companies that are doing well are primarily successfully managing costs. They have also been helped by no excessive wage pressure and have so far been sheltered from higher commodity prices squeezing their margins. So all in all it is still a fairly favourable environment for profitability, he concludes.Peter rates the Facebook IPO as overvalued. Facebook is priced more than double what Google was valued at in 2004 and he doubts whether Facebook's growth perspectives are twice as good as Google's. He foresees an IPO scenario not unlike that of LinkedIn's -- where the share price might go up on the first or second day of trading but that it <b>...</b>
- Title
- China's hard landing avoided? Several RBA rate cuts seen soon
- Runtime
- 5:55
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore gives insight into the strength of recent purchasing manager figures from China and confirmation of the Chinese economy's resilience to negative global pressure. He also analyses the latest macro data from Down Under in light of the rate outlook ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's first meeting this year.The recent PMI data out of China for January was received with surprise and some suspicion, especially due to the Chinese Lunar New Year preparations and prolonged celebrations which mean that orders and deliveries are normally brought forward and therefore a retracement was expected in January. Despite the latest data giving an indication that a hard landing in China could possibly be avoided, or at least delayed, Andrew advises that data for February and March will give a better indication of where the Chinese economy is really heading this year.Meanwhile, in Australia trade numbers for December were also quite strong with the surplus having increased more than expected though the main driver is still in the resource and mining sector of the economy of which coal production and exports are strong.Concerning the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting next week market expectations are for a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut. And with inflation not an issue, further rate cuts, probably in the vicinity of 100 basis points in total this year are highly likely given <b>...</b>
- Title
- EURUSD dynamic shifts post EU summit but market discipline lurks
- Runtime
- 6:17
- Description
- In this video with John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy Saxo Bank, he analyses the outcome of the January EU Summit and notes that not much at all has changed in terms of how the market looks at the Eurozone's predicament. Concerns about Europe may have eased slightly for now but the seriousness of the situation remains and some market discipline is almost certainly ahead if a more comprehensive solution is not found by politicians soon. Unless such a solution involving the European Central Bank printing more money or a true Eurobond emerges then previous alarming pressure points will almost certainly be reached again, says John.He likens the situation to a state of suspended animation and says Europe is for now fortunate to have the European Central Bank in the background so readily providing liquidity. The net effect being that peripheral Eurozone bonds are ironically going lower even though European politicians have still really failed to deliver!A smooth process for the implementation of the new treaty and agreement on the fiscal policing process probably needs to be well settled before the next EU summit in March, however these are long-term sustainability issues and continuing down the austerity route alone is still an unsustainable situation. In the short term the market just really wants to know if the liquidity game will be continued, says John.Macro data from Europe is still important especially when recent numbers have pointed to more contraction in Eurozone <b>...</b>
- Title
- EU summit: No workable crisis solution yet; Merkel tactics key
- Runtime
- 9:37
- Description
- In this macro report with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank, he analyses the situation for the Eurozone ahead of the EU leaders' first summit for 2012.The broader terms of the fiscal compact (agreed to at the December 2011 summit) are expected to be pretty much settled at the meeting, says Steen. But with the general improvement in overall markets the pressure for policymakers to really come together is unfortunately somewhat off, he adds. Therefore a truly workable solution will not be the outcome and many more negotiations ahead of the next summit in March are needed.There's also some way to go before the details surrounding the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent European bailout fund, are ironed out. The size of the total fund available is still very much an issue as increasing the amount via the likes of the International Monetary Fund is hardly an easy task for central banks in countries that are currently struggling, Steen says.German Chancellor Angela Merkel's words at the summit will be of key interest and her tactics in the months ahead could well result in her even losing her own foothold, says Steen who believes however that Germany will eventually come to the party and agree to Eurobonds and doing everything to safeguard Europe's future.The future of Greece remains a main concern as time is running out for a debt restructuring solution with private bond holders. Nevertheless, a 'voluntary forced' deal is seen only buying time. Greece is a <b>...</b>
- Title
- RBA rate cuts still just around corner; RBNZ hike kept at bay
- Runtime
- 5:53
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore analyses recent macro-economic data from Down Under and assesses whether an interest rate cut is soon expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia. He also touches on the inflation and rate outlook in New Zealand.Australia's December employment report which greatly missed estimates initially shocked and the knee-jerk market reaction was to sell AUDUSD but the Aussie dollar is expected to recover fairly quickly. Closer analysis revealed most losses in the part-time jobs sector and strong growth in full-time jobs which is the preferred scenario and it will be interesting to see if this continues, says Andrew.Meanwhile, the demand for home loans in Australia increased for the fifth straight month in November while building approvals are still relatively sluggish. Consumer sentiment as such is still suffering says Andrew and it will be some time before the effect of end of year interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia can really be felt by Australians. More rate cuts in the vicinity of 100 basis points during the next 12 months are still priced in and the expectation for another move at the RBA's February meeting is high.Also on rate outlooks the latest consumer price index data from New Zealand suggests a benign inflationary environment, thereby pushing back the chance for rate hikes, adds Andrew.See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com
- Title
- PBOC's easing flexibility reduced; Chinese New Year skews data
- Runtime
- 5:35
- Description
- In this Asia Focus Video Andrew Robinson, Correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, looks at how Asia has started the year and specifically the growth, inflation and monetary policy outlook for China, the region's power house.He explains why the People's Bank of China's flexibility to ease monetary policy further is slightly reduced following recent macro releases and how the upcoming Chinese New Year celebrations have played a role in skewing some data. This holiday season has a big impact on the economy every year as it virtually shuts things down for a few weeks. Therefore we will probably have to wait until February or even March when 'looney' distortions are well out of the way before we get a better feel for how the Chinese economy is developing, says Andrew. It is probably only then it can be properly determined if the People's Bank of China can continue down the easing track it began in December.In the meantime Andrew doubts whether it is possible for China to maintain its overall 8 percent growth rate this year, and refers to his more pessimistic view of the economy growing by about 6 percent, as outlined in Saxo Bank's just published first quarter 2012 outlook.Also in this video Andrew comments on how Singapore (like other Asian economies so dependent on exports and Chinese growth) is struggling as recent retail sales data shows. He cites authorities' growth warnings and refers to how the slowdown is particularly hurting the Singapore tiger's large <b>...</b>