Mon 20 Mar 2006
Warren Buffet’s basis for making a Forex bet
Warren Buffet’s approach to making bets in the currency market is that he has a long time horizon and that he believes that the US economy is rotten (U.S. policies are causing trade and budget deficits). This is a far more fundamental way and investment like way of playing the Forex-game than most people that are flipping currency pairs based on technical analysis on hourly price movements. He was betting that the dollar would decline.
Warren Buffet’s USD decline bet result
So how did this bet turn out? It is difficult to find some exact numbers on the web. But it seems it worked out in the period 2002-2004, and then it did not work out in 2005.
Quote from Forbes: “Berkshire made $297 million in profits from its position in 2002, $825 million in 2003 and $1.84 billion in 2004. He has doubled down on his investment over time, raising it to $21.8 billion at the end of the first quarter, from $11.3 billion at the end of 2003.
The dollar slid substantially over that time. From the beginning of 2002 until Wednesday(in May 2005), the dollar has fallen 29.5% against the euro, 26% against the Swiss franc, 32.4% against the Australian dollar, 20.6% against the pound sterling and 18.3% against the Japanese yen. ”
Quote from Wikipedia: ”
2002: (72 years old)
Buffett entered in $11 billion dollars worth of forward contracts to deliver US dollars against other currencies.
2003: (73 years old)
By December 31 his gain on the contracts from last year were over $600 million dollars.
2005: (75 years old)
The gains from the 2002 contract were reduced in 2005 when the US dollar strengthened.”
Final thoughts
It is believed that Buffet is still concerned about the US deficit. It is unknown how big his current position is against the US Dollar. Forex is difficult even for the worlds greatest investor, but it seems he is still has made money on this bet (perhaps a guess around 7% a year?).